Civil Defense 3: The Greatest Threat

As of mid-April 2013, the gravest threat to readers in Japan, Korea, and the United States is Threat B1: War — specifically a second Korean War. This entry explains how the Korean situation began, the Korean War of 1950-53, and the situation today. The current situation on the peninsula is tense, and should this tension continue, the chances of a second Korean War will increase.

They called World War II “The Good War”. It was a war in which the people of the United States were reluctantly involved, but one that the majority of Americans felt was being fought for the right reasons, against the right enemies, and with a real prospect of victory and peace afterward.

The first Korean War, however, was no good war.

It happened this way:  When World War II ended, the Japanese-occupied Korean peninsula was divided between two allied forces. (The Koreans were not consulted). United States forces took control of Korea south of latitude 38 °N, with the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR, aka the Soviet Union) occupying the peninsula north of that line. This is the famous “38^th Parallel”.

The Soviets soon established a pet dictator in the North, Kim il Sung, and set up the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, aka North Korea). The US set up its own military government in the South. This puppet state soon became the Republic of Korea (ROK, aka South Korea) under the dictatorship of Syngman Rhee.

On 1 October 1949, Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party drove the Nationalists out of the mainland and proclaimed the People’s Republic of China. Mao considered the United States to be China’s most dangerous enemy, and soon the Chinese began consulting closely with Kim il Sung about driving the Americans out of Korea. At the same time, Kim was plotting with the Soviets for aid as well.

Down south, Syngman Rhee had his own plans for unifying Korea under a single government.

Soviet troops pulled out of Korea in 1948; the US forces left in 1949. And so the two Koreas faced each other across the 38^th Parallel, each hostile towards the other.

The war began on  25 June 1950 with a surprise attack, during which the North Korean forces steamrollered the U.S. and South Korean defenders. At the United Nations, the United States and other countries proposed a Security Council resolution authorizing military intervention in Korea.  The UN met in emergency session, but the Soviet Union boycotted the Security Council vote, allowing the United States and other countries to pass a resolution authorizing UN military intervention in Korea. The US and twenty other countries of the United Nations formed an international force to counter the North Korean attack.

Meanwhile the North Koreans captured Seoul, pushed past it, and drove the allies back to a tiny, desperately-defended area around the port city of Pusan (known today as Busan). Outnumbered and outgunned, the allied forces died by inches on the Pusan Perimeter.

But help came in time. On 15 September 1950, General Douglas MacArthur, commander of the UN forces, made a surprise D-Day type landing at Inchon (now Incheon) behind the North Korean lines. At the same time the Pusan defenders, now greatly strengthened by reinforcements pouring in from Japan, broke out of the perimeter and drove north towards Seoul. Led by MacArthur’s US Army X Corps,  UN forces then began a counter-offensive that pushed the North Koreans past the 38th Parallel almost to the Yalu River, Korea’s border with People’s Republic of China.

At this point politics intervened. MacArthur knew that the Chinese were supplying the North Koreans with food, ammunition, weapons and supplies, and strongly advised US president Harry Truman to attack the Chinese supply sources using nuclear weapons. Not wishing to expand the war to include China, Truman refused. A battle of words and wills ensued, ending when Truman fired MacArthur for insubordination.

But the Chinese were coming no matter what Truman did. Beginning on 1 November 1950 Chinese infantry and other forces emerged from the hills and entered the war on the side of North Korea. Chinese forces broke the UN line with mass “human wave” attacks, the pushed the allied forces back across the 38th Parallel.

Meanwhile, the Soviet Union was passing supplies to both the North Korean and Chinese armies.

The war ground to a stalemate in 1951. Two years of extremely bloody fighting followed resulting in an estimated 1.2 million deaths on all sides.

Then, at last, on 27 July 1953, an armistice agreement was signed restoring the border between the Koreas near the 38th Parallel. The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), a 2.5-mile-wide fortified buffer zone between the two, was established. The Chinese army and Russian “advisors” left North Korea. The UN forces departed from South Korea. The US Eighth Army and other American forces remained.

And they remain there today, along with South Korea’s own military forces. Why?

Because the Korean War never ended. The agreement signed in 1953 was not surrender. It was an armistice, a cease-fire. The North Koreans have never renounced their intention to unify all of Korea under their government. The shooting can start again at any moment.

And since this is the case, then it follows that a second Korean War — which would really be nothing more than a continuation of the first — can break out at any time. This is why the danger of a second Korean war is the greatest threat to our communities at the present time.

What would such a war entail? What would a new Korean war be like? And how could it affect you and your community? These questions will be addressed in our next chapter.

NEXT: If War Comes

Civil Defense 2: The Threats We All Face

Civil Defense means the non-military defense of your community by the people who live and work there. But what does that actually mean? From what — or whom — might we have to defend things?

The word “defense” comes from a Latin word that means “to ward off”. And that’s what Civil Defense is: the means by which you and your neighbors can ward off, or keep at bay, those things that might pose a threat to your community. In other words, Civil Defense means protecting your home, family, and community from outside threats.

What kind of threats are we talking about here? Threats are, after all, nothing but those things that can cause harm, and a lot of things can cause harm. The trick is to think about the threats we all face in a systematic way,

And how do we do this? We look at the world around us. What things in the real world cause the greatest harm to communities in our nation?

When we look at things this way, it becomes possible to organize potential threats into two categories: Natural Threats and Artificial Threats.

Threat Class A: Natural Threats

A Natural Threat is a phenomenon of nature that has the potential to cause harm to a given community. Sometimes called “natural disasters”, these threats include:

1. Dangerous Weather (tornadoes, hurricanes, storm surges, ice storms, hailstorms, blizzards, dust storms, floods, lightning, prolonged heatwaves, droughts, etc)
2. Biological Hazards (plagues, pandemics, blights, destructive insect swarms, rat infestations, etc.)
3. Geological Events (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, lava flows, mudslides, toxic gas releases, tsunamis, etc.)
4. Astronomical Hazards (solar flares, asteroid impacts, meteoroid strikes)

In each case, the hallmark of the Natural Threat is that it lies outside the ability of human beings to create or control.

Given their natural origins, these threats are each predictable to some degree, or at the very least have long histories of happening in given locations. Communities with such histories generally make prudent preparations for the unpredictable but not unexpected incidents. Oklahoma City has high-definition weather radar and tornado sirens; Tokyo has stockpiles of supplies and equipment needed for post-quake survival and recovery. New York snowplows, Deep South hurricane evacuation routes — these are all examples of community disaster preparation. Each is, to one degree or another, an example of Civil Defense against natural disaster.

 NOTE

Given the current international situation, however, it’s probably best to leave discussion of Civil Defense against Natural Threats for later. After all, most American homes are already prepared to survive natural disasters in some way. You and your neighbors almost certainly keep candles, extra batteries, fire extinguishers, etc. on hand “just in case”, and you very likely know exactly where to tune in your area for storm warnings should the weather turn nasty. We will revisit these topics in later chapters. – Ed.

We now turn our attention to the other category of threat: the Artificial Threat.

Threat Class B: The Artificial Threat

An Artificial Threat is a phenomenon resulting from human activity that has the potential to cause harm to a given community. Sometimes called “man-made disasters”, these threats include:

1. War (and acts of war: invasions, bombings, pillage, refugee bands, nuclear/chemical/biological attacks, electronic warfare attacks,  genocide)
2. Hazardous Material release (toxic chemical spills, nuclear reactor meltdowns, radioactive materials releases, environmental contamination, smog, etc.)
3. Fire (destructive fires started either deliberately or through negligence)
4. Social collapse (crime, rioting, looting)
5. Political oppression
6. High-energy events (aircraft, railroad, and motor vehicle crashes; uncontrolled explosions; space debris impacts)

In each case, the hallmark of the Artificial Threat is that it lies within the ability of human beings to create or control.

Given their man-made origins, these threats are each avoidable to some degree, or at the very least can be planned for. Airports maintain their own fire departments in anticipation of an aircraft accident. Regional authorities create evacuation routes for residents living near toxic materials plants.  Radiation monitoring equipment, police riot squads, HAZMAT crews— these are all examples of community disaster preparation. Each is, to one degree or another, an example of Civil Defense against man-made disaster.

Having classified the threats that our communities may face, we can now begin to prepare to meet them. But which threat is the most likely? What is the greatest threat we now face? And how can we defend ourselves against it ?

We’ll search for the answers to those questions in our next chapter.

NEXT: The Greatest Threat

Japan Stands Up ABM Missiles

 

Not good.

Japan Deploys Patriot Missiles to Defend Tokyo from North Korean Threats

Civil Defense 1: What Is Civil Defense?

As decent people, we each of us wish to protect the people and things which we love.

And for most people, love of family comes before any other worldly concern. We want our spouses, our children, our parents, grandparents and siblings and cousins to be as safe from injury and pain as we can reasonably make them.

“Defense” is the word we use to describe the preparations we make, and the actions we take, to keep our loved ones and ourselves safe from the things that threaten them.

“Defense”, then, means “protective action”.

Defense takes two forms: military defense and civil defense. Military defense may be defined as protective action by means of armed force.  The armed forces of our nation are responsible for the military defense of our people, our territory, and our way of life.

Many of you are involved in this type of defense. You may be a member of the National Guard, ready for action whenever the nation calls. You may be a soldier, a sailor, an airman, a Marine, or a Coast Guardsman on active duty or in the reserve. Or you may be a civilian member of our nation’s defense establishment, or a worker in the production of weapons, military equipment, or vital supplies.

This is military defense. But what is “civil defense”?

“Civil Defense”. It sounds almost quaint. The phrase brings to mind images of air raid wardens in tin hats, Russian bombers over backyard fallout shelters, and schoolkids doing the “duck and cover” under wooden desks.

Nobody uses the words “Civil Defense” much anymore. Today, terms like “Preparedness”, “Readiness”, and “All-Hazards Emergency Management” have replaced the tired old terminology of the Cold War.

But no matter what new term the bureaucracies may come up with to describe it, the fact remains that the subject at hand can still best be summed up by the two simple words “Civil Defense”.

Why?

Let’s look at the word “defense” again.

As we said, “defense” is what we do to protect our families and loved ones from harm.

But for most people, the definition of “loved ones” extends to people who are beyond one’s biological family. For example, we love our friends and wish to protect them from harm. You drive your roommate home from the inn when he’s had one beer too many. You steer your sorority sister away from that charming guy whom you know is really a jerk. You help your fellow camper hose down his awning when he accidentally uses a little too much lighter fluid on his barbecue grill.

Our neighbors, too, inspire our protective instincts. When Charlie next door loses his prize poodle, you don’t just say “sorry” — you grab your flashlight and help him search the neighborhood. When saintly old Miss Mayberry across the street falls and breaks her hip, you don’t simply call the ambulance — you stay by her side until help is there. When Larry at church loses his job, you don’t just pray for him — you kick in a few extra bucks to the parish emergency fund and put him in touch with a guy you know who’s looking for a motivated worker.

In America, “love thy neighbor” is more than just a religious idea. It’s our tradition.

And, in a very real way, that tradition is the heart of Civil Defense. Civil Defense is love of neighbor — put into action.  Civil Defense is the preparations we make, and the actions we perform, in order to keep civil society — ourselves, our loved ones, our neighbors, and our communities — safe from the things that threaten to harm them.

We can’t all be involved in military defense. We can’t all be military men and women. The majority of the people in our country are civilians. We live in a civil society.

And that’s where the “civil” in “civil defense” comes in. Civil Defense means doing what you can as a civilian to protect civil society: the nation, the community you live in, and the people you care about.  It means your friends, your neighbors, your fellow parishioners, the people you know in everyday life, joined together by ties of love and friendship into a sort of non-military army, an army with which to defend one another when danger appears.

Civil Defense means the non-military defense of your community – your city, your neighborhood, your block — by the people who live and work there.

But before we can begin to discuss the specifics of defending our society against threats to the civil order, we must first identify which threats we are most likely to face.

What are the threats we must face? From what are we defending ourselves? We’ll search for the answers to those questions in our next chapter.

NEXT: The Threats We All Face

Today or Tomorrow

Today’s UK Mirror:

North Korea warns nuclear war on America could break out “today or tomorrow”

North Korea dramatically escalated tensions with America tonight by warning it had approved nuclear strike plans.

The army warned the US that it had been cleared to wage an attack using “smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear” weapons.

“The moment of explosion is approaching fast,” the North Korean military said, warning that war could break out “today or tomorrow”.

In response, President Obama ordered a ballistic missile defence system be moved to the nearest U.S. military base to the rogue state.

The U.S. defence system will move to Guam, the nearest American military base to North Korea, 2,000 miles south east of Pyongyang in the Pacific Ocean.

U.S. defence secretary, Chuck Hagel, said: “Some of the actions they have taken the last few weeks present a real and clear danger and threat to the interests of our allies starting with South Korea and Japan.

“Also there have been threats the North Koreans have leveled at our base in Guam and Hawaii.”

Yes, it’s the Mirror, Yes, the Norks have made this sort of threat before.

But still…

I don’t believe it is likely that the North Koreans are going to attack us with nuclear weapons. I also don’t believe in the likelihood of another Korean war. I don’t see what the NoKos could rationally hope to gain in either contingency.

But there’s no guarantee that the power clique that runs North Korea is acting in a rational fashion.

Bearing that in mind, I do believe that a war with North Korea in the near future is possible. The rhetoric coming out of Pyongyang now has a tone to it that seems different and more dangerous than the usual product. Couple that with the Kaesong closing and the deployment of U.S. and allied naval and anti-ballistic missile forces and, well, I’m beginning to wonder if this time things might be getting out of hand.

Right now it’s all jaw-jaw, thank God. There are certain actions, however,  that will indicate that war-war is about to happen. These include:

• A partial or general evacuation of Seoul
• The evacuation of American dependents and civilians from South Korea
• A “surge” reinforcement of US forces in Korea. Any sudden and unexpected deployments of certain U.S. forces to West Coast ports; any sudden large increases in westbound rail traffic carrying military weapons, vehicles, equipment; any mobilization of civilian Military Sealift Command ships and non-military air transports; any quiet National Guard call-ups; any unscheduled forward deployment of Air Force units normally based in the States (especially B-2A and B-52 groups); any increase in traffic at Pier 8 in Busan; or any other sign that we are frantically reinforcing our forces in theater, and it’s almost certainly Showtime.

Note: If you happen to notice any of the above, keep it to yourself. Do not discuss military logistics (or anything else that the Norks might like to know) in any public forum. 

The most important sign to watch for is the declaration of a state of emergency in Japan. If such occurs, it almost certainly means that the U.S. and Japan have knowledge of an impending attack. The NoKos have missiles that can hit any city in Japan with WMDs, and, since Japan will be out main command center and logistics base in any new Korean war, they will likely bear the brunt of Little Kim’s opening gambit.

Any use of WMDs by the Norks will almost certainly be in Korea or Japan. There is no known North Korean missile or aircraft that could carry a nuclear bomb from there to the continental U.S. That, however, does not mean that a North Korean nuclear bomb cannot be used to attack a target in the continental U.S. I’ll leave it to your imagination, dear reader, to figure out how this might happen. In the meantime, I think it might be a good idea to refresh everyone’s memory about our old friend Civil Defense — just in case.

Yes, that’s “civil defense”, as in Duck and Cover. They call it Homeland Security All-Hazards Emergency Management now, or something like that, but despite the bureaucratese name it’s the same old drill: how to Zig when disaster Zags. Whatever you call it, it’s always a good idea to know what might happen If — and what to do When — an emergency situation occurs.

To that end, I have decided to post a series of online Civil Defense education posts here at brucelewis.com. These posts, which will begin ASAP, will cover the very basics of preparing for and living through any new war with North Korea. I hope you will read them and heed them.

In the meantime, please continue to pray for peace. Any war in Korea — even one we win — would be an utter nightmare. Let’s ask God to keep that nightmare from becoming real.

Kaesong Klosed

 

Not good:

(Reuters) - North Korea closed access to a joint factory zone with South Korea on Wednesday [2 April], officials said, putting at risk $2 billion a year in trade that is vital for an impoverished state with a huge army, nuclear ambitions and a hungry population.

The move marked an escalation in North Korea’s months-long standoff with South Korea and its ally Washington.

Here’s why:

We’ve been here before. North Korea is threatening war, readying its military, issuing a series of increasingly ominous and categorical declarations about its intentions. It’s even cuta crucial inter-Korean phone line. It’s sending just about every possible signal that a country might send before it goes to war.

Except that North Korea has done most of these things before, including severing the phone line. So how are we supposed to tell the difference between the bluffs and a real, earnest ambition to start a full-scale war? There’s no way to know for certain short of reading Kim Jong Un’s mind, of course. But we do have one pretty good metric with which to judge the country’s intentions: the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

The Kaesong Industrial Complex, located just across the northern side of the border, is staffed by South and North Koreans. It can’t function without Pyongyang’s daily okay. If the North suddenly shuts down Kaesong at some point, watch out. But as long as it’s still running, as it has been throughout the provocations and tensions of the last few weeks, we can probably –  probably — assume that North Korea is not actually planning to launch a war.

And since it’s being closed… well, you do the math.

A second Korean War would be a very, very bad thing.

For everybody.

Let’s all pray that it doesn’t happen.

In light of recent developments overseas…

 

Clip from The Atomic Cafe [Archives Project/Libra Films, 1982]

“When They Drop The Atomic Bomb” (Howard)

as performed by

Jackie Doll and his Pickled Peppers

Mercury 6322  [1951] 

There will soon be an end to this cold and wicked war
When those hard headed Communists get what they’re lookin’ for
Only one thing that will stop them and their atrocious bunch
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

Now over in Korea our boys have fought and fell
But they died just like heroes amid the many shot and killed
They had their hands tied behind them and were murdered by the score
By those dirty minded Communists who started this sad war

There’ll be fire, dust and metal flying all around
And the radioactivity will burn them to the ground
If there’s any Commies left they’ll be all on the run
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

Old hard headed Joe will be feelin’ mighty blue
When he finds out he’s bitten off more than he can chew
For his aggression will be ended and the job will be well done
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

Old MacArthur has the power to stop those murderin’ thieves
And he’ll make them sorry for their underhanded schemes
Just leave it to the general for he really has the nerve
To give no good Communists just what they deserve

There’ll be fire, dust and metal flying all around
And the radioactivity will burn their playhouse down
If there’s any Commies left they’ll be all on the run
If General MacArthur drops an atomic bomb

More

Note: All kidding aside, I pray that a merciful God spares us another Korean War. - BL